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«Кольцо анаконды»: санкции будут бить по российским нефтяникам со временем все сильнее — Би-би-си

Российские госкомпании «Роснефть» и «Газпром нефть» больше всего пострадают от западных санкций, следует из доклада Энергетического центра «Сколково».

Сейчас влияние почти незаметно, но в будущем добыча существенно снизится из-за недостатка технологий. Потери бюджета будут расти.

Такое мнение излагается в свежей публикации в Би-би-си.

Американские санкции вводят запрет на крупные инвестиции в российские проекты по добыче полезных ископаемых, а также ограничения на передачу технологий для разведки и добычи российской нефти на глубоководье, арктическом шельфе и сланца.

Все крупные российские месторождения нефти с запасами более 200 млн тонн попадают под западные финансовые санкции, пишут эксперты Энергетического центра бизнес-школы «Сколково» в докладе о перспективах нефтедобычи.

Еще несколько крупных проектов попадают под санкции, которые запрещают западным компаниям поставку оборудования для добычи нефти в России.

Большинство этих месторождений разрабатывают «Роснефть» и «Газпром нефть», следует из доклада. Русская служба Би-би-си направила запросы в эти компании, ответа пока не получила

На данный момент российские компании адаптировались к санкционному режиму, отмечают аналитики. Пока сохранить добычу на прежнем уровне и даже нарастить ее помогли большие вложения прошлых лет, крупные налоговые льготы и девальвация рубля.

Но удовлетворительное состояние нефтяного бизнеса в России может быть обманчивым, говорит руководитель центра Татьяна Митрова.

«Основной месседж [доклада] — текущий маленький эффект санкций не должен вводить в заблуждение, не должен создавать иллюзию, что все хорошо и можно не беспокоиться. К сожалению, беспокоиться нужно», — сказала эксперт.

Выпадающие доходы российского бюджета из-за сокращения добычи под влиянием санкций и как итог — снижения нефтяных доходов — в 2025 году составят только 150 млрд рублей, но уже к 2030 году вырастут до 270 млрд рублей. Это 10% поступлений от экспортной пошлины и налога на добычу полезных ископаемых в 2016 году.

«Санкции редко влияют на текущий день. Они обычно влияют на день завтрашний, а самое неприятное — они отбирают день послезавтрашний. Если помните, в советские времена была такая формулировка, как «кольцо анаконды» — то, что постепенно сжимается и постепенно отнимает будущее», — сказала Татьяна Митрова.

Как удалось увеличить производство

На первый взгляд, российский сектор нефтедобычи адаптировался к санкционному режиму. Добыча нефти в России с 2012-й по 2016 годы выросла на 6% до 548 млн тонн в год.

В 2014-2017 годах благодаря вложениям, сделанным до ввода санкций, были запущены более десятка новых месторождений. Они обеспечили прирост добычи на 25 млн тонн нефти, причем более двух третей этого прироста пришлись на «Роснефть» и «Газпром нефть».

Роста добычи удалось добиться за счет ввода новых месторождений. Этому также помогла девальвация рубля, которая снизила затраты российских нефтедобывающих компаний в долларовом эквиваленте.

Кроме того, благодаря особенностям налоговой системы России спад цен на нефть в большей степени сказался на бюджете, чем на финансах компаний, говорится в докладе.

Но разработка большинства действующих месторождений уже идет на спад, и бизнесу следует задуматься о том, чтобы хотя бы поддерживать производство на прежнем уровне, предупреждают эксперты «Сколково».

Шельф и сланцы

Спад добычи можно было бы компенсировать за счет разработки нетрадиционных запасов на суше и морских месторождений. Но шельфовые проекты, как правило, развиваются с участием иностранцев.

В связи с этим санкции фактически заморозили развитие этого сегмента, отмечают эксперты бизнес-школы «Сколково».

Из-за необходимости соблюдать санкции США американская ExxonMobil уже была вынуждена выйти из совместных проектов с «Роснефтью» в Карском море и на Туапсинском прогибе в Черном море.

Также санкции повлияют на разработку сланцевых месторождений. Связано это с тем, что из-за санкций в Россию в ближайшие годы не будет поставляться оборудование, которое используется для гидроразрыва пласта при добыче сланцевой нефти.

Сейчас у России есть около 80 комплексов (флотов) для таких работ, из которых только 3% — отечественные. С 2014 года, когда были введены санкции, в России не произвели ни одного флота для гидроразрыва пласта. А тот, что есть, устаревает и требует замены.

Нехватка технологий может повлиять и на действующие традиционные месторождения.

Потери будут расти

Энергетический центр «Сколково» прогнозирует снижение добычи в долгосрочной перспективе.

Суммарная добыча нефти в России при сохранении нынешних условий — базовый сценарий — начнет падать в 2021 году. Если санкции будут усилены, а цена на нефть снизится до 40 долларов за баррель, добыча начнет падать уже в 2019 году, считают эксперты.

При базовом сценарии спад добычи прогнозируется с 580 млн тонн на пике производства до 540 млн тонн к 2025 году, а при усилении санкций — до 505 млн тонн к 2025 году.

antikor.com.ua

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