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Які “козирі припасли” кандидати в президенти? Що може нас здивувати? Кого наступного купить Коломойський?- Ігор Мізрах

31 березня вже не за горами, багато хто з кандидатів вже мріє, щоб цей день настав. Звісно, народ ці всі виборчі перипетії виснажили. Та, нажаль, на останньому дні березня все найцікавіше тільки буде починатись. А перші квітневі дні взагалі можуть країну поставити навколішки.

Спостерігаючи за соцопитуваннями ми бачимо просто неймовірні каруселі. Якщо в реальності взяти людей, то цим рейтингам з початку березня практично не довіряють. Якщо спитати пересічного українця : « За кого проголосуєш?», то більшість скаже, що не визначились. А ті хто чітко заявляє: «Проголосую за Зеленського» – на питання, а хто все ж переможе – відповідають переважно: «Порошенко». Це ж є своєрідним абсурдом . За рахунок цих опитувань народом просто маніпулюють, і це чітко ми усвідомимо після дня виборів.

Якщо ж брати в цілому політичну когорту – то вже тепер можна констатувати що 2019 рік точно проведе «природній відбір» серед політиків. І  забігаючи наперед, скажемо після Парламентських Виборів ми явно не дорахуємось не менше сотні «зубрів» українського політикуму у Верховній Раді. Але це можна розцінювати більше, як позитивні зміни, адже «стариків в бою»  ми вже бачили… Та деякі з цих «вічних» політиків усвідомлюючи свої мізерні шанси на присутність у ВР в кінці 2019 року зараз просто зубами вгризаються в будь-який шанс десь пристроїтись в «тепле місце».  А це може, як піти на користь комусь із кандидатів на пост президента, так і когось просто знищити. Хочемо зауважити, що кандидати, які не пройдуть в другий тур, але отримають велику підтримку від людей – стануть ласим шматком перед наступним туром для фіналістів гонки.

 

Припускаємо, варіант перший, найбільш оптимальний для Коломойського – пройдуть : Зеленський і Тимошенко. За таких умов точно всі, крім них (мова про кандидатів) пролетять «як фанера над Парижем». Україна перейде до чіткого олігархічного управління. Можливі невеличкі повстання, але не більше. Так як, Аваков з МВС і Нацдружини все візьмуть під контроль. За такого варіанту Порошенко бігтиме швидше як Януковича…

Варіант другий – Зеленський і Порошенко. Також для Коломойського не найгірший, адже таким чином він стимулюватиме підтримку з боку Юлії Тимошенко, звісно в обмін на пост Прем’єр Міністра. Але тут можна ще провести ряд дискусій, адже реальний рейтинг П.О. Порошенка знаходиться в тіні, та й скоріш за все так і залишиться. Але навіть за перемоги чинного глави – спокій не настане. Україну може сколихнути цілий ряд повстань починаючи від Нацдружин, закінчуючи звичайними мародерами, але найгірше буде то, що МВС будуть досить мляво реагувати на такі дії. Так що, і за перемоги самому Порошенко буде дуже не солодко…

Варіант третій – Тимошенко і Порошенко. За статистикою мало ймовірний, але цілком реальний. При такому розкладі буде реальна бійня – в рух піде все дозволене і недозволене.  Звісно на допомогу примчить  «слуга не народу»  і просто на руках нестиме «Абіцяючу» до заповітного трону. Але на цьому не все не закінчиться. По-перше , Коломойський схоче 100% гарантувати перемогу і може витягнути найцікавіший козир. А ним може стати – Анатолій Гриценко. Такий крок точно гарантує перемогу, і незважаючи на думки скептиків він цілком реальний. За такого варіанту Зеленського, можуть просто злити до Парламентських Виборів, а посаду Прем’єра запропонують Гриценкові. А він скоріш за все і не відмовиться. От такий цікавий поворот може нас чекати.

Щодо інших варіантів думаємо фантазувати не потрібно –  ми ж все-таки в реальному світі  живемо.  Зауважуємо, що Порошенко суттєвих прихильників до об’єднання не має, а це означає що його противники цього разу практично прорахували 99 % виборчого процесу. А сам Петро Олексійович підійшов до виборів занадто самовпевненоугр, за що може поплатитись. А його ціна може бути для нього дорожчою, ніж свого часу він виставив Януковичу.

Підводячи підсумки, констатуємо – після виборів вже практично неважливим буде те, чи реально винен Порошенко в тому, що йому інкримінують. За його виграшу – спокійно все прикриє, та ще й з відсотками верне потрачені кошти на вибори. За виграшу іншого кандидата – всі скоєні і не скоєні злочини покладуть йому на плечі, і дадуть добу для виїзду в теплі краї. Та все ж хочеться додати: протистояння явно буде Порошенка проти Коломойського(Тимошенко/Зеленський). І з 1 квітня Україну чекають вкрай непередбачувані дійства, які дуже надіємось не призведуть до жертв. За перемоги Тимошенко/Зеленський – все пройде трошки спокійніше, ніж за перемоги Порошенка це факт. Але надіємось що переможе тільки гідний кандидат, який буде робитиме правильні кроки до відновлення України, як сильної, квітучої, Суверенної держави.

Політичний експерт, аналітик,

Ігор Мізрах

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